越来越喜的情人节--性别经济学视角

孤独剧情不太可能牵涉到根本性的扭转。

Sex ratios are a pretty fundamental force in shaping the behiour of a population． When they go out of kilter， strange things tend to happen．

异性恋数目是塑造族群举动中都极其举足轻重的基础力量。当数目以后平衡点时，好像的事情就开始牵涉到了。

In 2014， the male-to-female ratio for the prime marriage age in China （age 20-24） was 1.06． That will rise to nearly 1.2 in the coming five years． In the animal kingdom， a population of excess males typically results in intensified mating competition， which can lead to a variety of effects on physical appearance and social behiour．

2014年，中都国初婚平均年龄（20-24间）男女数目是1.06。在来得进一步5年，这个数目将回升至相对于1.2。在动物王国中都，彦性数量供给不一定时会加剧受精竞争者，这不太可能时会对外貌和社时会后孤独举动产后生各种各样的阻碍。

Mating competition is generally regarded to lead to more pronounced sexual dimorphism， or differences in the appearance between males and females of a species．

受精竞争者不一定被认为时会造成了来得明显的异性恋二态性，或者是一个物种中都体形两性间外形的差异。

雌狗：“我老觉得，你一点儿也不珍惜我的付出。”

彦狗：“我。的。天。啊”

For example， studies on baboons he found that when the number of males exceeds females in a local population， males tend to get larger in body size as a result of mate selection——bigger males tend to win fights over females and get to reproduce， thus creating larger future generations． Dimorphism is also found in other characteristics， such as canine and testes size （for those species where sperm competition is important）．

例如，有学术研究推断，如果某地的彦性狒狒数量超过雌性，作为男方的结果，彦性的身材时会显得来得身材高大，因为身材来得大的彦性能够赢得战斗从而赢得雌性为其数代，并赢得来得多的祖先。在其他特征上也能找到二态性，例如犬牙和肾上腺的大小（对于那些胚胎竞争者很举足轻重的物种来说是）。

In addition to changes in physique， changes in the sex ratio also affect reproductive strategies．

除了个头的变化都是，异性恋数目的变化也时会引致数代策略性的扭转。

For instance， when male-male competition is fierce， males are known to invest more effort in raising their offspring rather than in trying to find additional mates． In species that live in alpha male-dominated groups （such as gorillas）， mating competition can also increase the risk of infanticide by a non-resident male， leading females to enter into heat and reducing future competition．

例如，当与的竞争者越发猛烈，时会花来得多的全心教养自己的祖先，而不是去找其他的配偶。后孤独在占占多数的族裔中都（如大狗），受精竞争者也能增大非本族裔的彦性杀婴的风险，造成了雌性多时会并且增大来得进一步的竞争者。

Do humans， pose any fundamental exception to this observation？ In most human societies， brute strength is no longer the key determinant of success in mating competition． Instead， one of the main arenas for mating competition is in the economic realm． And economic behiour has been shown to change as a result of gender imbalances．

对于节肢动物这一现象生命体有各有不同的展现吗？在大多数生命体社时会后孤独，蛮力以后是受精竞争者最终的决定因素。也就是说是，受精竞争者的主战场之一是经济的发展科技领域。学术研究找到异性恋数目主因时会引致经济的发展举动的变化。

Consider for instance the impact of sex ratios on the female‘s decision to remain in the labour force．

例如，异性恋比对异性恋留在劳工力消费者市场举动的阻碍。

A study by Joshua Angrist， an economist at the Massachusetts Institute of Techno， of immigrant communities in the United States showed that increases in the local sex ratio reduced female labour supply． Women were more likely to exit the labour force after marriage given the increased ease with which one could find a husband．

麻省理工学院医学院（MIT）社时会后孤独学家Joshua Angrist 在学术研究英美两国移民社群的难题时找到，一个南部异性恋比的提较高增大了当地异性恋的劳工自给自足。由于异性恋找妻子的概率提较高，异性恋来得有不太可能在结婚后离去劳工力消费者市场。

Sex ratios can also affect household sing behiour．

异性恋比也时会阻碍家庭储蓄举动。

Wei Shangjin （now Chief Economist at the Asian Development Bank） and Zhang Xiaobo （professor at Peking University） concluded that roughly half of the substantial increase in China‘s household sing rate was attributable to the rise in sex ratios． Interestingly， the main subjects of the study were not the future grooms but their parents， who increased sing in order to improve their sons’ attractiveness in the marriage market by purchasing housing and other signals of eligibility．

魏尚进（现任亚洲开发银行首席社时会后孤独学家）和张（北京医学院客座教授）找到中都国近分之二家庭储蓄率的提较高可以归因为异性恋比的提较高。有意思的是，这文中的学术研究主体并不是来得进一步的新郎，而是他们的母亲。母亲增大储蓄是为了买房子，从而提较高儿子在再婚消费者市场的挑战性。

Does an increase in the sex ratio always result in males sing more？

前提异性恋比回升总时会造成了储蓄来得多？

A study by psychologists on US cities suggests otherwise． Vladas Griskevicius （University of Minnesota） and his co-authors conclude that higher sex ratios actually reduced sing in the short term since more intense male-male competition lead to men buying things more impulsively in an effort to impress their prospective mates．

一项关于英美两国小城镇的社会学学术研究声称不尽其然。Vladas Griskevicius（纽约尼克斯医学院）和他的合作者找到由于较高异性恋比使得与的竞争者来得加猛烈。因为时会通过来得加冲动的消费者来给来得进一步配偶遗失期待，所以较高异性恋比实际上增大了短期储蓄。

Does this contradict the results in the China study？ Not necessarily．

这项学术研究结果前提与中都国的学术研究结果相矛盾呢？未必。

Higher sex ratios intensify male-male mating competition， but the nature of competition and mating tactics can vary across societies， depending on what the opposite sex find desirable． It may well be the case that in Chinese society， thriftiness and long-term financial stability are prized more by women than gifts and short-term material gain．

较高异性恋比使得-竞争者来得加猛烈，但是各有不同社时会后孤独竞争者的类型和找配偶的策略性都有差异，有所不同异性恋认为什么来得举足轻重。无论如何刚好在中都国，节省以及长时间的财务稳定比礼品以及短期物质利益来得被异性恋称道。

Entrepreneurship and hard work？ Check．

创业和帮助社会活动？是的。

In a different study， the same Wei and Zhang observe that private businesses were more likely to emerge in regions with a higher gender imbalance． Further， they find that son-only households were more likely to he started their own business than daughter-only households， and that this effect was more pronounced in counties with a more skewed sex ratio． They also show that households with a son in regions with a high sex ratio are willing to work longer hours and accept more unpleasant jobs．

魏尚进和张在另一项学术研究中都找到在异性恋主因来得不堪重负的南部民营企业来得有不太可能出现。此外，他们找到只有儿子的家庭比只有女儿的家庭来得有不太可能创业，并且这一效应在异性恋主因来得不堪重负的县级南部来得明显。他们也找到异性恋比来得较高的南部有儿子的家庭社会活动意愿社会活动时间来得长以及来得想接受条件来得差的社会活动。

2014年中都国分平均年龄异性恋比

纵轴：每一位对应异性恋数量

纵轴：平均年龄

信息比如说是：社时会后孤独学人该协会

The impact of rising sex ratios is thus real and policymakers should he potential unforeseen consequences on their radar． The question remains as to how these future developments will affect gender relations and women‘s welfare in Chinese society． The answer is far from straightforward．

所以异性恋数目回升的阻碍是实实在在的，政策制定者们应该提前考虑未察觉到的各类难题。所需注目的是这些来得进一步的各种不太可能的发展将如何阻碍两性间的关系以及中都国社时会后孤独中都异性恋的福利。回答并非附注。

According to most standard measures of gender equality such as labour participation rates and wage equality， the situation for women will worsen． If the evidence provided by these studies is instructive， financial power will be more concentrated in the hands of men as intensified marriage competition forces them to work harder and se more． Women will become increasingly financially dependent on their husbands．

根据大多加权异性恋男女平等的基准这两项，例如劳工参与率和同工同酬，异性恋将面临的状况不太可能时会恶化。如果以上的学术研究提到的证据有指导作用的话，再婚消费者市场的竞争者加剧将造成了社会活动来得帮助，存钱来得致力，同时财政主导权时会来得多的集中都在手中都。与此同时，异性恋在财政上时会显得来得加相反她们的妻子。

At the same time， these developments he as their ultimate cause the increased bargaining position of women vis-a-vis men， dictated by the laws of demand and supply．

与此同时，根据其实质应当，异性恋数目的痉挛时会造成了双方在再婚消费者市场的买方并能牵涉到变化。

While the economic gap between men and women may get wider， family dynamics may improve． A number of studieson both humans and non-humans he found that increased mating competition among males leads to greater paternal investment （men becoming better fathers）， as well as increased marriage rates． Perhaps the outcome will be a Chinese woman who does not work yet commands greater authority in a relationship．

虽然跟异性恋在经济的发展上都的落差不断扩大，家庭的动态不太可能时会缓解。有文献指出，不光是针对生命体也有针对非生命体的学术研究，找到再婚消费者市场上的猛烈竞争者时会造成了提较高对下数代的投资（变成来得好的父亲），以及提较高的结婚率。无论如何再一牵涉到的时会是一位不社会活动的异性恋在性别角色中都立即来得较高的话语权。

Moreover， nature has a way of restoring things balance to things． Female animal species he been observed to adopt counter-strategies to deal with heightened male aggression and competitiveness． In the case of the infanticidal gorilla， a commonly-seen response is for the female to begin mating with multiple males so as to confuse the offending male as to which offspring is actually his own．

大自然总时会脱离万物于平衡点。雌性动物时会针对彦性来得有进攻性和竞争者性的特点采取相应的对抗策略性。对于大狗种群中都假定的误杀幼崽的举动，雌狗不一定的声势浩大是开始跟很多各有不同的彦狗受精从而使想要不敬的彦狗分不清楚哪个幼崽是他自己的。

There is also increasing evidencethat females manipulate the sex ratio of their offspring to maximise their chances at hing grandchildren． Too many males means there is a chance that a son will not get to reproduce． Thus， a female is a safer bet．

越发多的证据也声称，雌狗时会操纵下数代的异性恋数目来最大相对增大延用祖先的概率。太大的下数代彦性意味着有的彦性不太可能未继续繁殖，此时后生一个雌性时会是来得为明晰的同样。

Throughout history， most recorded instances of large sex ratio imbalances he involved a surplus of females as a result of war． China‘s case is thus unprecedented， it is hard to predict how things will pan out over the longer term．

多数载入史册的大规模异性恋主因是由于战争造成了的异性恋剩下。中都国剩下的大环境并无充分可循，未预报长时间新的发展。

The abolition of the one-child policy， one of the main causes of sex-selective abortion in China， means that the sex ratio imbalance may well be a blip in history． Whether--and to what extent--the damage has already been done is， perhaps， a question for the baboons．

在此之后的一孩政策是中都国大量基于异性恋的特异性早产主要不太可能之一，随着此项政策的作废，异性恋主因不太可能在近代场合中都只是沧海一粟。前提--并且何种相对——损害之前形成并未逆转，无论如何是只有狒狒才知道的难题。

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